2011 Scouting Report: Terrell Stoglin
Terrell Stoglin was Luke Winn’s top pick as a breakout sophomore player and I see little reason to disagree. Stoglin had several great games last season as a freshman, with 4 games over 20 points. He should see an increase on his 53.8% minute percentage last season while becoming one of the main offensive threats on a guard oriented Maryland team. Let’s take a brief look at some of his strengths and his areas where he could improve. Remember, this is not a comprehensive scouting report on his entire game.
Stoglin is arguably the fastest player in the ACC and he knows how to use his speed in the open court. He is great at leading the transition game and can read the defense and know when to attack the defense and when to find the open teammate. When he gets in the open court with the ball, few players can keep up with him and slow him down.
This first sequence will show Stoglin in the open court attacking the rim. He is not the biggest player (he is listed at 6’1″ but I estimate him more in the 5’10”-5’11” range) but his speed allows him to beat the defense down the court and get a layup at the rim before the defense can challenge his shot.
Stoglin also can feed his teammates on the break for good looks at the rim. He shows an ability to thread the needle and make a pass that looked impossible before Stoglin completed it to a teammate. Stoglin always has his head up and on a swivel, looking for teammates on the break. He almost always makes the right decision between taking the ball himself and passing it to a teammate. The ability to pass on the break encourages his teammates to run in transition with Stoglin, as they might find themselves with an easy layup.
It will be interesting to see how new coach Mark Turgeon approaches the transition game for Maryland this season. Maryland had a tempo of 71.6 possessions last season, 17th in the nation. This is the highest for Maryland since 2007 and it is mainly due to the speed of Stoglin and his desire to get out and run in transition. Turgeon’s teams have been slow historically, as their highest number of possessions in one year since 2003 is 69.2 (which was in 2003 – A&M had adjusted tempo of 62.2 last season, 326th in the nation).
Area of Improvement
Playing under control in the half court
While Stoglin is strong at using his speed in the open court, he has not quite figured out how to leverage this speed into a great half court game. He has a quick first step but once he gets going, he can’t adapt to the defense. This leads to a turnover rate of 21.7% as Stoglin finds himself exposed when he gets out of control.
In the following sequence of clips, I think the first turnover exemplifies this the best. Stoglin has a first quick step to the baseline but once the defense rotates over, he cannot get himself under control, come to a stop and find the open man. This leads to him fumbling the ball out of bounds. Stoglin can still use his speed in the half court but he needs to learn to play quickly but don’t be in a hurry. This should help him react to the defense and adapt to the situation when it changes, so he can leverage his speed into more productive possessions for the Terrapins.
Stoglin reminds me a bit of Ishmael Smith his freshman year. Smith had an assist rate of 38.9% but a turnover rate of 29.7%. Smith played a bit out of control his freshman year as well and was able to cut turnovers down to 19.9% by his senior season, as he matured and learned how to use his quickness intelligently. Stoglin will never be able to eliminate turnovers entirely but once he learns how to play under control in the half court, he should be able to decrease the amount of possessions end up in turnovers.
The biggest question mark for Maryland next year is the tempo they will play at, as discussed above. Will Turgeon adapt his style to his personnel and let Stoglin push the ball, playing to his strengths, or force him to walk the ball and put him in the half court, where is he a little less effective? This will be an important question as the season opens and one I will be watching closely.